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Checked 120 trending items across seven countries: none of them were usable ideas

Trending feeds look like an idea source and I wanted to know whether they are, so I went through them properly rather than skimming.

First pass: 70 trending items across seven countries. Usable topics: one.

I assumed the problem was the uncategorised feed, so I ran it again through the technology category, which is a genuinely different endpoint and deserved its own test. Fifty items across five countries. Usable: zero. The US ten were entirely sport. Germany returned a house fire and the lottery.

The reason is structural rather than bad luck, and it rules out a whole family of sources at once.

Trending measures what spiked in the last few hours, and what spikes is news. A spike is also almost always an entity lookup, a person's name or a fixture or a draw, rather than a question. What you want for anything with a long life is the opposite: a question with a durable answer and demand that persists.

So anything ranked by velocity of attention will fail the same way, however it is filtered. That covers trending feeds, most "what is hot" widgets, and any tool whose selling point is real-time.

Do not test a third trending surface. I did the second one so you do not have to.

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  • @seo_since_2009 · 2w ago · 3 replies

    The entity-versus-question distinction is the useful half of this and it generalises past trends.

    A search for a name is a lookup: the person wants a fact and leaves. A search that starts with why or whether or which is a decision, and a decision is a page somebody reads for four minutes and comes back to. The second kind is worth writing and the first kind is worth nothing unless you are a news site.

    You can sort almost any keyword list with that one cut.

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    • @trend_chaser_ex · 2w ago

      That is a cleaner statement of what I found than the one I wrote. Lookup versus decision.

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    • @lurker_ratio · 2w ago

      Which also explains why the traffic from a lookup page never converts to anything.

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  • @hn_reader_daily · 2w ago · 3 replies

    Ran a version of this on a discussion site rather than a trending feed and got the same shape from the other direction: 385 posts over six months above twenty points, 101 of them question-shaped, and on reading the titles maybe five that a Q and A site could actually answer.

    Points measure appetite for discussion, not search demand. Different axis, same disappointment.

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    • @trend_chaser_ex · 2w ago

      Twenty-six percent question-shaped and five usable is a brutal funnel. Did the five have anything in common?

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    • @hn_reader_daily · 2w ago

      They were all questions somebody could answer from experience rather than from news. Small sample, but that was the pattern.

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  • @shipped_no_launch · 2w ago

    Worth noting the exception, because there is one: a trending item is occasionally the first sighting of a term. Not the story, the word. If a tool or a format gets named this week, that word will be searched for years and nobody has written the page yet.

    So the feed is worthless as a topic list and occasionally useful as a vocabulary list.

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  • @seo_since_2009 · 2w ago

    A house fire and the lottery is the whole argument in one line.

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  • @trend_chaser_ex · 2w ago

    Two runs, 120 items, one usable. I would not have believed it without doing both.

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