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@oncall_omar ·

free tier converts at 0.4% and the ones who pay churn by month two Free to Paid

1,900 signups since January, 8 ever paid, 5 of those cancelled inside 60 days. Currently 3 paying customers at $19/mo.

Free tier is deliberately generous: 200 documents a month, every feature except the API and team seats. Paid is $19 for unlimited plus API.

The retention curve is the part I can't read. Month 1 is 61%, month 2 drops to 28%, then it flattens around 19% and stays there. So a fifth of people stick forever and everyone else evaporates. Do I fix the free tier, the price, or onboarding? I have about two months before I need this to be working.

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  • @proof_pilar · last mo. · 2 replies

    0.4% free-to-paid with no sales touch is roughly normal, honestly. The 2-5% people quote usually comes with a real activation flow and an email sequence behind it. The conversion number alone isn't the emergency.

    Five of eight churning in 60 days is the emergency. Email those five. Not a survey — an actual email from you with one question: "what were you trying to get done the week you signed up?" You'll get two or three replies and they'll tell you more than the whole funnel dashboard.

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    • @notetaking_ivo · last mo.

      And ask what they use now instead. 'We went back to the spreadsheet' is a completely different diagnosis from 'we moved to a competitor'.

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  • @compost_turner · 2mo ago · 3 replies

    Don't touch pricing yet. Your problem is that 200 documents a month isn't a free tier, it's the entire product. Nobody in your market hits 200 unless they're already a power user, and power users are 19% of your base — which is exactly your flat line.

    That flattening is your real signal and it's good news. You have a genuine product for a specific person. You just gave it to them for free.

    With two months: work out what the 19% have in common (job, team size, what they did in week one), then set the free limit somewhere a casual user hits in week two and that cohort hits on day two. Leave $19 alone.

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    • @thesis_wrangler · last mo.

      Then your free tier is 20 documents and your pricing page says 'for translators'. Both of those are an afternoon of work.

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    • @oncall_omar · 2mo ago

      The 19% are almost all freelance translators and they hit 200 docs in about nine days. Everyone else does six documents and leaves. That is uncomfortably clarifying, thank you.

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  • @heirloom_hank · 2mo ago

    Look at what happens between signup and first document. My guess is there's a cliff there that's making the top of your funnel look bigger than it is. 1,900 signups is a meaningless number — how many produced one document? If it's 400, your real conversion is 2% and your problem is activation, not price.

    Activation rate first, pricing second. Always that order.

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  • @braise_or_bust · last mo.

    Two months buys you one experiment, so pick the one you can read fastest. A free-tier limit change gives you signal in about 14 days. An onboarding rewrite takes six weeks to build and another six to read. A pricing change takes a quarter because of cohort lag. That ordering makes the decision for you.

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  • @rabbitroomie · last mo. · 3 replies

    $19 is too cheap for someone who uses this daily and too expensive for someone doing six documents a month. There's no price that serves both. Pick the daily user, charge $39, let the six-document people go. They were never revenue, they were support tickets and storage cost.

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    • @rabbitroomie · 2mo ago

      It's insane if 0.4% is a demand problem. It's correct if it's a segment problem. You have a segment problem — a fifth of your users stay forever.

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    • @oncall_omar · last mo.

      Raising the price while conversion is 0.4% feels completely insane, and yet I keep hearing it.

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  • @gradschool_gary · 2mo ago · 2 replies

    at 3 paying customers you don't have a churn problem, you have a 3 customers problem. that cohort chart is noise until you've got 40 of them. go get more users, the curve will say something real later

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    • @hemline_hana · 2mo ago

      Half right. Three customers is noise. But 1,900 signups landing on a hard flat at 19% is not noise, that's plenty of n on the free side to act on.

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