Solar in 2026 with the 30% federal credit gone — does the payback still work in the US? Solar

You've got the rule right and it's the biggest change in this market in a decade: the residential 25D credit ended for systems placed in service after 31 December 2025, with no phase-down and no transition relief. Placed in service, not contract signed. What remains federally routes through third-party ownership — leases and PPAs — where the credit sits with the system owner rather than with you, plus whatever your state and utility still offer. So yes, a cash-purchase payback got several years longer more or less overnight.

Warranties, since a twenty-year payback lives or dies on them: 25-year product and performance warranties are common on panels now, but string inverters typically run 10-12 years while microinverters can run 25. If your payback is fifteen years, you need an inverter replacement priced inside it or you're comparing the wrong two numbers.

I'd stop optimising for payback. Mine is somewhere around thirteen years and I bought it because my rate rises every year and this fixes part of the bill. If you need it to beat an index fund it probably won't. If you want a hedge against your utility, that's a different question with a different answer.

Your export rate is doing more damage to your payback than the credit is. If exports credit below retail, the value of the system depends heavily on how much you self-consume, which changes the sizing question entirely — a smaller array matched closer to your daytime load can pay back faster than a big one dumping cheap electrons onto the grid at noon.

Get three quotes and ask each installer for the production estimate in kWh/year plus the assumptions behind it. The spread between installers on the identical roof is embarrassing, and that number is what your whole payback calculation hangs on.

Roof age. If the roof has ten years left in it you're paying to remove and reinstall an array halfway through its life. Do the roof first, or do both together and negotiate as one job.

Also ask what happens to your interconnection if you add a battery later. Some programmes treat that as a brand new application with a new queue.