Two economy trips a year and no patience for award charts — is 2 percent back just better for someone like me?

Do the arithmetic on your own numbers rather than on anyone's valuation chart. 2k a month at a flat 2 percent is 480 a year, guaranteed, no expiry, no seat hunting. To beat that with points you need to consistently redeem above about 2 cents each after fees, which in economy on peak dates is a stretch — most of my economy redemptions land between 1.1 and 1.5, and the ones that made the hobby look good were long-haul business seats I booked eleven months out. Your constraint is the calendar, not the card.

Fixed school-holiday dates plus economy plus no phone calls is close to the worst case for award travel, and I say that as someone who enjoys the hobby. Award seats at saver level on peak family dates are the scarcest thing in the system, and the value people quote for points almost always comes from premium cabins booked with flexible dates. Take the flat cash back, keep one no-fee card, and revisit if your travel ever gets flexible. You will lose a small amount of theoretical value and get back a lot of evenings.

Partial disagreement, because the framing of points versus cash misses a middle option. A flexible-points card that can also be cashed out at a fixed rate gives you the floor of cash back with the option value of transferring if a good award ever appears. You never have to play, you just keep the door open, and the annual fee question becomes a straight comparison against the credits you actually use. I would not tell someone in your position to lock into a pure airline currency, but I would not push them all the way to a plain 2 percent card either.

One thing the pure cash-back comparison leaves out: some travel cards carry benefits that are worth real money to a family flying twice a year, like checked bags or lounge access on those specific holiday flights. Price those against the fee separately from the points question, because that maths can be positive even when the points maths is not.