Would you take the 15-year again, or did the payment squeeze you when things got tight? Mortgage Mechanics

Took the 15 in 2016, hit a lean year in 2020, and did not regret it — but the reason is specific and worth stating. We had eleven months of expenses saved before we closed, so the lean year was survivable without touching the payment. The 15-year is a great product for people whose buffer is already built and a genuinely dangerous one for people who are counting on the payment being affordable at current income forever. Which of those you are is the whole question.

Took the 30 and paid it like a 15 for four years, then stopped paying extra for two years when my wife retrained, then started again. The rate difference cost me real money over that period and the flexibility was worth every dollar of it. The honest trade is: the 15 gives you a lower rate and no exit; the 30 gives you a higher rate and an exit you may never use. Price the exit rather than pretending it is free either way.

One mechanical detail: with 20% down you should not be paying mortgage insurance on a conventional loan at all, so that particular ongoing cost is off the table in both options. Worth confirming on your loan estimate rather than assuming, because it changes the payment comparison if it appears.

Took the 15 and hit a lean year without the buffer, which is the version of this story people do not post. We made it, but we drained everything, sold a car, and I would not choose that again for a rate difference. If your plan already includes a lower-income phase, I would take the longer term and treat the extra payment as optional. That is what I did the second time.

The counterargument to "take the 30 and pay it like a 15" is behavioural and it is not nothing. Most people do not actually do it. If you know yourself well enough to say you will, the 30 dominates. Every person I know who said it and then did it for a decade had an automated transfer set up the week they closed; everyone who left it to willpower drifted within two years.

Terse: if your own plan involves less income in three years, do not buy a payment that requires today's income. Talk it through with someone qualified who can see the whole file.