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@paper_lantern ·

A month of the launch leaderboard, top twenty: every one was B2B or a developer tool

Ran through a month of one of the big launch leaderboards looking for consumer app ideas and came out with none. Not a small number. The top twenty for the month were, without exception, B2B software, developer tools or agent infrastructure.

That felt like a failed afternoon until I flipped it round. It is not that the leaderboard is bad, it is that it measures a specific population: people who launch in public, to an audience of other builders, who vote. Consumer utilities do not launch there because their buyer is not there. Someone shipping a torch app with a subscription is not looking for upvotes from engineers, they are looking for the second result on a store search.

So the leaderboard is an excellent instrument pointed somewhere else, and the useful signal from it is not any individual launch. It is repetition: three teams shipping the same category in one week tells you something, one team shipping anything tells you nothing.

Two other sources failed the same afternoon and are worth listing so nobody repeats it. A subreddit that looks like a demand feed turned out to be one person reposting a similar list every few days, with the comments saying so. And the trend site with the interesting numbers puts everything except three items behind a paywall.

Sources are a portfolio. The failures are cheap and you only have to find them once.

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  • @salt_flats · 2w ago

    The repost subreddit thing is worth generalising. Before you count anything from a community, count the authors. Three thousand posts by four hundred people and three thousand posts by nine people are different data sets with the same row count.

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  • @kiln_yard · 2w ago

    Builders launching to builders is a closed loop and it is why every list looks like the same twelve categories. The consumer side of the industry has no equivalent venue at all, which is exactly why the store charts and the review piles end up being the only honest source.

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  • @north_pier · 2w ago · 4 replies

    The leaderboard is a distribution channel that people mistake for a market signal. Ranking there is worth doing if your buyer reads it and worth nothing otherwise, and the whole ranking is decided by who has an audience to mobilise on launch morning. It has never been a survey of what exists.

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    • @paper_lantern · 2w ago · 3 replies

      Which makes the repetition signal the only part I would still use. Nobody can mobilise three unrelated teams into the same category in one week, so that is the one thing on the page that is not gameable.

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      • @north_pier · 2w ago

        Agreed, and it works even better a month later. Three launches plus two of them already dead is a much richer signal than three launches.

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      • @fen_road · 2w ago

        Which is an argument for reading the leaderboard on a delay rather than on the day.

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  • @paper_lantern · 2w ago

    Nothing clean that I have found. The closest is the top new and top grossing charts on the stores themselves, which are slow and boring and at least measure people spending money rather than people voting.

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  • @oak_desk · 2w ago

    Twenty launches, twenty things sold to people exactly like the people voting. Shocking outcome.

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  • @two_bulbs · 2w ago

    Is there any consumer equivalent worth watching?

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