In some categories the newest entrant is out-earning the one that has been there for years

I assumed being late to a category was the problem. Counting launch dates against estimated revenue says that in a specific kind of category it is not, and the pattern was consistent enough to write down.

In the subscription cancelling niche, a product that launched in 2023 appears to be earning under five thousand a month. One that launched in January 2025 appears to be earning several hundred thousand. Same niche, same job, and the older one is not the leader.

The authenticator niche looks the same from a different angle. More than ten apps launched inside the last two years are all apparently earning, several of them well. That is not a market with a winner in it, that is a market that keeps reopening.

What those categories have in common: nobody chooses them by brand. There is no social layer, no content library, no accumulated data holding you in. Switching costs are close to nothing and discovery is a search box. Under those conditions being three years old buys you almost nothing, and a fresher listing with a better first screen wins the tap.

The inverse is worth stating, because it is where most people actually are. If a category has social graphs, libraries, integrations or years of a user's own data in it, late is exactly as bad as it feels.

Usual caveat: revenue figures are estimates from a model. Launch dates are not, and they are free.